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Is inflation in Ghana a monetary phenomenon?
Addo, Grace Naa Kalei
ABSTRACT Inflation is a problematic macroeconomic factor that affects most economies, in-cluding Ghana. Inconsistent policies have made it difficult for policymakers to achieve target inflation rates, leading to negative impacts on living standards. Infla-tion is a key indicator of a country's economic performance, and Ghana has been severely impacted by excessive inflation. The aim of the research was to develop more accurate models for predicting inflation in Ghana by assessing various econ-ometric techniques and identifying key macroeconomic signs. Multiple Regression Analysis and Walk-through analysis were applied to secondary data obtained from Ghana to make inflation predictions. The findings revealed an inverse relationship between GDP growth and inflation over the long term, but a direct relationship in the short term. Government expenditure had a negative influence on inflation in the short term but a positive impact over the long term. Neither broad money growth nor real effective exchange rate had a significant impact on inflation. The study also revealed a substantial upward trend in broad money and significant influencing fac-tors in the BOG policy rate, inflation rate, and GDP growth rate. The real effective exchange rate and government expenditure had no significant influencing factors.
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The Czech banking sector: Determinants of Profitability
Hykl, Daniel ; Pečená, Magda (advisor) ; Teplý, Petr (referee)
This thesis is concerned with Czech banking sector in 2015 - 2020 and its profitability. A set of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables is tested for profitability determination effects by a general profitability model estimated with system GMM, FE, and OLS methods, yearly and quarterly data are used. The results indicate negative effects on bank profitability of the following on both yearly and quarterly bases: capitalization, operational efficiency, and inflation change, and positive effects on bank profitability of the following on both yearly and quarterly bases: bank size and GDP growth. The thesis also analyzes quarterly changes in bank assets, liabilities, and equity. The results indicate systematic drops of liabilities and assets reported as of year-ends. Potential explanations are discussed along with suggestions for further research as this study presents a complex set of insights, results, and experience ready to be augmented with further efforts.
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Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe
Janota, Martin ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.
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Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe
Janota, Martin ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
Estimating the Euro effect with Synthetic Control Method for Eastern Europe Abstract This thesis estimates the effect of Euro adoption on newest Eurozone members using synthetic control method. The effect is estimated on income per capita and GDP growth. Estimates indicate overall indecisive effect for Slovakia and Malta, neutral effect for Estonia and negative effect for Slovenia and Cyprus. The cost of Euro for Cyprus is estimated to be as high as 1/3 of GDP per capita. In some cases the direction of the effect changed before and after the financial crisis. The quality of inference suffers from low number of observations. Methodological assumptions are discussed, concluding that quality of Eastern European time series likely causes substantial bias in the results.
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Financial Globalization and Macroeconomic Volatility: an Empirical Study of the Effects of Foreign Bank Presence on the Volatility of Consumption and Growth
Casula, Chiara ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Jiří (referee)
Financial integration has been at the centre of a wide debate, especially with respect to its effects on stability, inequality and welfare. This thesis presents an empirical investigation on the relationship between financial integration and macroeconomic volatility. The present study takes advantage of the publication of a new database on integration in the banking industry, and estimates its effects on the volatility of output and consumption, on a set of 136 countries over the years 1996 to 2009, using regions and country fixed effects. The analysis focuses on the effect of foreign bank presence on macroeconomic volatility, and as a further application, on the effect of foreign bank assets on macroeconomic volatility. Furthermore, the present study will determine whether the findings change for Central and Eastern European Countries and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The main finding is that foreign bank presence is significantly related to the volatility of output, but it is not related to the volatility of private consumption growth. The original contribution of this paper is to empirically analyse data on foreign bank presence as proxies for financial integration, and to relate them to the volatility of output and consumption.
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The development of euro in the context of European debt crisis
Machová, Veronika ; Čajka, Radek (advisor) ; Bolotov, Ilya (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to provide an overview of developments and issues in the context of the European debt crisis. Euro as a central aspect of Economic and Monetary Union has a major impact on convergence and existing systemic problems of the EU. The first chapter provides a brief description of the european integration since World War II in the context of Economic and Monetary union. The second chapter defines the concept of nominal and real convergence and dedicates closer to the Maastricht convergence criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact, which was the result of efforts towards closer fiscal coordination. Moreover, it summarizes the main causes of the financial crisis and subsequently analyses its impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. The fourth chapter focuses on the systemic weaknesses of the eurozone with an emphasis on the imbalance in the current account balance of payments. The last chapter summarizes the approaches to solving the debt crisis assuming that current steps taken by eurozone leaders in cooperation with the governments of intebted members fail.
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Dopad přímých zahraničních investic z Evropské unie na Singapur
Hrazdíra, Adam ; Klosová, Anna (advisor) ; Taušer, Josef (referee)
The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of FDI flows from the European countries to Singapore. The analysis focuses on the period between 1995 and 2013. The work begins with the review of the relevant literature. The most important findings about spillover, spinoff effects, and the main FDI determinants are summarized in tables. The empirical part reveals the trends of FDI in Singapore with an emphasis on the influence of FDI from European countries. The work contains two main research questions: Does FDI from European countries have a positive impact on GDP growth in Singapore? Is it possible to identify the main determinants that attract FDI in Singapore? Time series analyses and panel analyses are used in the dissertation. Among the most valuable results belong the confirmation of a positive impact of FDI from Europe on GDP growth and the identification of some of the main positive determinants for attracting FDI in Singapore.
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The financial crisis and its impact on U.S. gross domestic product growth
Cimala, Petr ; Jílek, Josef (advisor) ; Dočkal, Dalibor (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to quantify the impact of the 2008 financial crisis to U.S. economic growth and also identify potential scenarios for future development. For this purpose, there was selected a sample of historical cases of financial crisis where followed the process of deleveraging. Identified impacts were applied to estimate the future GDP growth. In the period 0-5 years after the crisis GDP typically slowed by 40-45%, in 0-7 year horizon by 28-35%, and in the 10 year horizon by 17-20%. In a case of deducting export effect, slowdown of GDP growth is even higher. For the next 8 years average U.S. GDP growth is estimated to 2.26-2.6%. Compared with the pre-crisis period, slowdown reaches 14-25%. Process of deleveraging is now in the one third of the expected duration. The financial sector and household sector remains vulnerable to return the economy into recession and will deleverage further. Non-financial firms are sound. The greatest risk is hidden in the public sector which is experiencing high deficits and uncontrolled growth of debt. Debt is starting to approach level that may reduce long-term dynamics of GDP growth. The future path is in the hands of government officials. Fiscal consolidation treat the root of the problem, but it is painful and hard to approve. Delays in solving the problem is less painful way, but it can result in massive government debt, as it is now in Japan. Repeating Japan scenario is unlikely. The magnitude of balance sheet recession in Japan was much larger. The measures taken have not been so quick and strong.
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Does level of aggressiveness in society influence number of road fatalities in country?
Cvrček, Jakub ; Houdek, Petr (advisor) ; Stejkoza, Josef (referee)
The thesis analyses the relationship between level of aggressiveness in society and number of road fatalities using data from the states of European union from 2004 to 2008. It describes socioeconomic determinants that explain violent behavior in countries and than focuses on individual rate of aggressiveness and rate of aggressiveness in society. Regression analysis is made by fixed effects method after that. The analysis confirms positive relationship between rate of aggressiveness in society (measured by homicide rate and number of housebreaking) and number of road fatalities. Others significant variables were evaluated GDP growth, tax ratio amount, unemployment rate, number of doctors, young people ratio, alcohol consumption, seat belt using and number of passenger-kilometers in country. The mechanism of their effect on road fatalities rate is discussed. Estimated results were used to formulation of recommendation for reduce number of road fatalities.
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